This question must be answered in close connection with the development in South Sudan – where more than 99% of people voted for independence – and Yemen, where popular uprisings led to Abdullah Saleh and his son renounce their taking part in the next election.
Salva Kiir, the Southern Sudanese most prominent leader, vowed moderation, which is instrumental in his getting with clear hands to the negotiation table with Omar al-Bashir’s central Government. It will nonetheless nudge Somaliland toward higher recognition hopes and this, in turn will exacerbate tensions with Puntland.
Southern Somalia extremely deteriorated scenario will not be affected much. Changes in the opposition camp (where Hizbul Islam has joined the al-Shabaab camp) have already taken place and the TFG has already countered the growing pression.
What we can see here is that international interest is now drained more than ever towards other areas. It is normal, but one should bear in mind that Somalia and the Horn of Africa are a crucial part of the wider arch of instability which is now developing. Addressing its issues will have immediate and beneficial effects on North African and Arab shores too.
